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--2--
This is where we need to take a step back and look at the big picture.
We need to appreciate the immensity of the financial decisions that we're
making and see their true impact on our future. We need to think them
through, and a little bit of math can help us do that.
OK, OK, don't panic. First off, the couple of rules that I'm going to
talk about here actually require very little math, and what math is required
is fairly simple. But, despite their simplicity, these rules get us thinking
about the big picture first and then allow us to move on to making some
specific decisions that will help us reach those goals.
Without further a do, here are two rules we should already know and should
never forget again:
The rule of 72 -- double your money, double your fun
This is my favorite rule of finance because it forces you to look at what
you have -- right now, today -- and then focus on what you can reasonably
achieve given your return expectations.
The Rule of 72 will tell you how long it takes for an investment to double
in value, assuming interest is paid annually and reinvested in the same
account. To get your result, simply divide the number 72 by the interest
rate you expect to earn on your investment.
For example, if you put your money in an investment earning 8%, dividing
72 by eight will tell you that your money will double in nine years. Consequently,
if you earn 9% on your money, it will take eight years to double, and
10% will get you there in 7.2 years. If you're expecting a more modest
6%, 12 years will pass before you see double dough.
This rule itself is not a prediction, but a simple mathematic fact. Of
course, the predicting part comes in when you assume what you'll earn
on your investment. (If it's Treasury securities, you probably know, but
if it's stocks, you're making an educated guess).
For that reason, you had better err on the side of caution. Though stocks
-- as measured by the S&P 500 -- have returned just north of 10% since
1926, there have been 10-year periods where returns were substantially
lower or virtually nonexistent. So, be conservative but realistic, depending
on your time horizon.
The great power of this rule may be that it has a tendency to get folks
excited about investing -- especially teenagers who have such long periods
of time in which their money can grow. Given that, you'll be doing them
a real favor if you teach it to your children and grandchildren.
If that's still not powerful enough to make them lenders instead of borrowers,
teach them the oft-forgotten flip side of this rule, as it will also tell
them how long it will take for their debts to double in size at a given
interest rate. With consumer debt at an all-time high, this side of the
coin may prove the better lesson for your college-aged kindred.
For example, if you have $10,000 in debt and you're paying 7% interest
on that balance, you'll owe $20,000 in just over 10 years. Of course,
this assumes that no payments are required, but many student loans work
this way (i.e., the interest simply accrues and is capitalized, so the
debt builds until you begin making payments).
Even if we're talking about credit card debt -- where you're required
to make minimum monthly payments -- the rule still suggests how quickly
debts can become burdensome. Indeed, today's minimum payment requirements
often have little more impact than zero payments, though, the balance
is at least going in the right direction in this case.
Next........
Index
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